Forsell, N. et al. Assessment of land use, land-use change and projections of forest emissions from INDCs. Management of the carbon balance. 11, 26 (2016). Open Access This article is placed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License that allows the use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any media or format, as long as you correctly indicate the original author(s) and source – a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if any changes have been made. Images or other third-party materials contained in this article are included in the Creative Commons license of the article, unless otherwise specified in a line of credit for the material. If the material is not included in the Creative Commons license of the article and your use is not permitted by law or exceeds the permitted use, you must obtain permission directly from the copyright owner. To see a copy of this license, see creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Historical developments and future projections are based on published data sources. The baseline scenarios were extracted from the IIASA IAM implementation of SSP1, SSP2, and SSP3, as described in Reference 14.

Historical GHG emissions use data from PRIMAPHIST11, CAIT43 and EDGAR42 with reference F-gases 44. 45, while the future national GDP (PPP) and national demographic developments are taken from Ref. 15 and (Ref. 46) respectively. The NDC targets are assessed as of 3 September 2017 (ref. 47). The Cancún national commitments are based on reference 48 and energy data on reference 49. The first assessments of the NDCs were based on the INDC & NDC fact sheets by R. Alexander and M.

Meinshausen, from the Australian-German Climate and Energy College at the University of Melbourne, available at climate-energy-college.org/ndc-indc-factsheets. "Less than zero" means that, in some interpretations of what is right, this government would have no more emission allowances by 2030 and would have to completely eliminate its emissions or offset its remaining emissions with reductions elsewhere, for example by supporting emission reductions in other countries. Implicit carbon prices before 2030 have been deducted from the estimated global average carbon price, which is needed in 2030 to achieve estimated emission reductions under different interpretations of the CNN at a lower cost. Post-2030 carbon prices, which correspond to a probability of at least 50% (allowing temperature to temporarily exceed the 1.5°C threshold) of at least 66% above pre-industrial levels or the return of warming to less than 1.5°C by 2100, were deduced from a two-step modelling approach. In the first phase, the model will be short-sighted until 2020 and 2030 with the aim of presenting a specific emission reduction. In a second step, the development of the energy system (including its emissions) will be frozen by 2030, then the model will optimize the energy system throughout the twenty-first century, with the objective of remaining in a cumulative limitation of GHG emissions (about 820 GtCO2e for 1.5 ° C and ∼ 1,890 GtCO2e for 2 ° C, both in SSP2 from 2010 to 2100). The carbon prices presented in Figure 4 before and after 2030 are then derived from the implicit carbon prices for 2030 of the short-sighted stage or the optimization of the whole century. . . .

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